Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to channel erosion uncertainty during extreme flooding          下载免费PDF全文

Jefferson S. Wong  Jim E. Freer  Paul D. Bates  David A. Sear  Elisabeth M. Stephens 《水文研究》2015,29(2):261-279

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilize the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry and channel long‐profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D–2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD‐FP) of the ~1 : 2000 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of simulated scenarios of channel erosional changes were constructed on the basis of a simple velocity‐based model of critical entrainment. A Monte‐Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of this channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected an approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion that enveloped observed erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long‐profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude of event modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead, morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel‐bed rivers such as the one used in this research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Reefs at the edge: coral community structure around Rapa,southernmost French Polynesia          下载免费PDF全文

Mehdi Adjeroud  Carden C. Wallace  Pauline Bosserelle  Claude Payri  Jean‐Louis Menou  Michel Pichon 《Marine Ecology》2016,37(3):565-575

Rapa (27°36′ S, 144°20′ W) is a small (~40 km²) volcanic island isolated in the Southern Austral Archipelago, where direct anthropogenic stressors are extremely limited. Here, we present the results of the first quantitative survey of coral community structure across habitats and depths around the island. Despite its geographical isolation in the depauperate South Central Pacific, its small size and unfavourable environmental conditions (competition with macroalgae, low sea surface temperatures, reduced reef accretion), the diversity of scleractinian corals at Rapa is particularly high (112 species from 32 genera, including 37 species of Acropora) in comparison to other French Polynesian islands and subtropical Pacific locations. Our results indicate that the abundance (>100 colonies per 10 m² recorded at nine of the 17 sampling stations) and cover (>40% at four stations) of corals are relatively high for a marginal reef location. Strong spatial heterogeneity was found, with high variation in diversity, abundance, cover and community composition among stations. Variation in community composition was related to habitat types, with distinct assemblages among fringing reefs within bays, reef formations at bay entrances, and those on the submerged platform surrounding the island. On the platform, a depth gradient was detected, with generic richness, abundance and cover generally greater at deeper stations (18–20 m depth) compared with medium‐depth (10–12 m) and shallow (1–3 m) stations. A gradient was also recorded along bays, with increasing coral diversity and abundance from the bay heads to the bay entrances. The coral community at Rapa was characterized by the presence of several taxa not found in other French Polynesian archipelagos and the rarity of others that are common and abundant in the Society and the Tuamotu islands. Another distinctive feature of reef communities at Rapa is the high cover and dominance of macroalgae, particularly in the shallower parts of the surrounding platform, which probably explains the lower densities of coral colonies recorded there. These characteristics of the diversity and biogeographical composition of coral assemblages at Rapa provide considerable ecological grounds for its conservation.  相似文献   

Prediction of ground vibration due to quarry blasting based on gene expression programming: a new model for peak particle velocity prediction   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

R Shirani Faradonbeh  D Jahed Armaghani  M. Z. Abd Majid  M. MD Tahir  B. Ramesh Murlidhar  M. Monjezi  H. M. Wong 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2016,13(6):1453-1464

Blasting is a widely used technique for rock fragmentation in opencast mines and tunneling projects. Ground vibration is one of the most environmental effects produced by blasting operation. Therefore, the proper prediction of blast-induced ground vibrations is essential to identify safety area of blasting. This paper presents a predictive model based on gene expression programming (GEP) for estimating ground vibration produced by blasting operations conducted in a granite quarry, Malaysia. To achieve this aim, a total number of 102 blasting operations were investigated and relevant blasting parameters were measured. Furthermore, the most influential parameters on ground vibration, i.e., burden-to-spacing ratio, hole depth, stemming, powder factor, maximum charge per delay, and the distance from the blast face were considered and utilized to construct the GEP model. In order to show the capability of GEP model in estimating ground vibration, nonlinear multiple regression (NLMR) technique was also performed using the same datasets. The results demonstrated that the proposed model is able to predict blast-induced ground vibration more accurately than other developed technique. Coefficient of determination values of 0.914 and 0.874 for training and testing datasets of GEP model, respectively show superiority of this model in predicting ground vibration, while these values were obtained as 0.829 and 0.790 for NLMR model.  相似文献   

Nonparametric Estimation of Undrained Shear Strength for Normally Consolidated Clays     

Iok-Tong Ng  Ka-Veng Yuen  Le Dong 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2016,34(2):127-137

For decades, various well-known empirical correlations have been established and commonly used to estimate the undrained shear strength of normally consolidated clays in geotechnical practice. However, there are still many contradictory cases regarding the validity of these correlations, so their applicability and reliability are questionable. In this study, an extensive geotechnical database for normally consolidated clays has been compiled. Next, a Bayesian nonparametric method is exploited to identify the most critical soil index properties in inferring the undrained shear strength and a new predictive model is proposed. Finally, the performance of the proposed predictive model is assessed and compared with two well-known correlations using an independent testing database. It confirms that the proposed model not only possesses high predictability, but also provides superior performance over other existing empirical correlations.  相似文献   

Wetland economic valuation approaches and prospects in China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Bo Jiang  Christina P. Wong  Lijuan Cui  Zhiyun Ouyang 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2016,26(2):143-154

Ecosystem services valuation seeks to increase the social relevance of ecosystem characteristics, the underlying biological mechanisms that support services, by making the contribution of ecosystems to human well-being explicit. Economic valuation can help management by clarifying the full range of benefits and costs of proposed management actions. In the past two decades, economic valuation of wetland ecosystem services has become one of the most significant scientific priorities for wetland protection. In this paper, we provide an overview of ecosystem services, and summarize the main interdisciplinary approaches to measure and value wetland ecosystem services. We identified four main methodological gaps preventing progress on wetland valuation of ecosystem services in China, which are: 1) confusion on terminology like intermediate and final ecosystem services, 2) lack of ecological production functions to link ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services, 3) static valuation making it difficult to evaluate the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services, and 4) lack of clear guidance on relating ecological compensation programs to conservation targets. Overcoming these gaps is important to inform wetland compensation mechanisms and conservation policies. We propose future research on wetland ecosystem services in China should be focused on: 1) defining final ecosystem services based on beneficiary preferences and underlying biophysical mechanisms, 2) establishing wetland monitoring programs at specific sites to collect data on final ecosystem service indicators and ecosystem characteristic metrics to create ecological production functions for economic valuation and rescaling techniques, and 3) incorporating wetland ecosystem service values into decision-making processes to inform wetland management.  相似文献   

Impacts of hydrous manganese oxide on the retention and lability of dissolved organic matter     

Jason W. Stuckey  Christopher Goodwin  Jian Wang  Louis A. Kaplan  Prian Vidal-Esquivel  Thomas P. BeebeJr.  Donald L. Sparks 《Geochemical transactions》2018,19(1):6

Minerals constitute a primary ecosystem control on organic C decomposition in soils, and therefore on greenhouse gas fluxes to the atmosphere. Secondary minerals, in particular, Fe and Al (oxyhydr)oxides—collectively referred to as “oxides” hereafter—are prominent protectors of organic C against microbial decomposition through sorption and complexation reactions. However, the impacts of Mn oxides on organic C retention and lability in soils are poorly understood. Here we show that hydrous Mn oxide (HMO), a poorly crystalline δ-MnO₂, has a greater maximum sorption capacity for dissolved organic matter (DOM) derived from a deciduous forest composite O_i, O_e, and O_a horizon leachate (“O horizon leachate” hereafter) than does goethite under acidic (pH 5) conditions. Nonetheless, goethite has a stronger sorption capacity for DOM at low initial C:(Mn or Fe) molar ratios compared to HMO, probably due to ligand exchange with carboxylate groups as revealed by attenuated total reflectance-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and scanning transmission X-ray microscopy–near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy coupled with Mn mass balance calculations reveal that DOM sorption onto HMO induces partial Mn reductive dissolution and Mn reduction of the residual HMO. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy further shows increasing Mn(II) concentrations are correlated with increasing oxidized C (C=O) content (r = 0.78, P < 0.0006) on the DOM–HMO complexes. We posit that DOM is the more probable reductant of HMO, as Mn(II)-induced HMO dissolution does not alter the Mn speciation of the residual HMO at pH 5. At a lower C loading (2 × 10² μg C m^?2), DOM desorption—assessed by 0.1 M NaH₂PO₄ extraction—is lower for HMO than for goethite, whereas the extent of desorption is the same at a higher C loading (4 × 10² μg C m^?2). No significant differences are observed in the impacts of HMO and goethite on the biodegradability of the DOM remaining in solution after DOM sorption reaches steady state. Overall, HMO shows a relatively strong capacity to sorb DOM and resist phosphate-induced desorption, but DOM–HMO complexes may be more vulnerable to reductive dissolution than DOM–goethite complexes.  相似文献   

Soil column infiltration tests on biomediated capillary barrier systems for mitigating rainfall-induced landslides     

Sheng Hua Tan  Shi Wei Wong  Du Jia Chin  Min Lee Lee  Ying Hui Ong  Siaw Yah Chong  Azman Kassim 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(16):589

Rainfall-induced landslide is a common geohazard in tropical and humid regions. Capillary barrier system (CBS) is a popular and widely studied mitigating measure for rainfall-induced landslides. However, several previous studies have shown that the performance of the conventional CBS under intense rainfalls has not been particularly convincing. This paper aims to explore the feasibility and effectiveness of a newly proposed system, known as “biomediated capillary barrier system” (B-CBS) in minimizing water infiltration into soil. A one-dimensional soil column was used to investigate the infiltration characteristics of the proposed system. The results showed that the B-CBS of biomediated residual soil overlying original residual soil (Test IV) could effectively control the infiltration into soil by taking advantage of the less-permeable biomediated soil cover. The B-CBS of biomediated residual soil overlying gravelly sand (Test V) and the three-layered B-CBS of fine sand overlying gravelly sand and biomediated residual soil (Test VI) showed the best performance in terms of minimizing the water infiltration. A suction of about 5 kPa still remained in the soil column after 60 min of infiltration from the ponded water on the soil surface.  相似文献   

Effect of loading duration on uncertainty in creep analysis of clay          下载免费PDF全文

Fang Tan  Wan‐Huan Zhou  Ka‐Veng Yuen 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(11):1235-1254

Some studies suggest that creep parameters should be determined using a greater quantity of creep test data to provide more reliable prediction regarding the deformation of soft soils. This study aims to investigate the effect of loading duration on model updating. One‐dimensional consolidation data of intact Vanttila clay under different loading durations collected from the literature is used for demonstration. The Bayesian probabilistic method is used to identify all unknown parameters based on the consolidation data during the entire consolidation process, and their uncertainty can be quantified through the obtained posterior probability density functions. Additionally, the optimal models are also determined from among 9 model candidates. The analyses indicate that the optimal models can describe the creep behavior of intact soft soils under different loading durations, and the adopted method can evaluate the effect of loading duration on uncertainty in the creep analysis. The uncertainty of a specific model and its model parameters decreases as more creep data are involved in the updating process, and the updated models that use more creep data can better capture the deformation behavior of an intact sample. The proposed method can provide quantified uncertainty in the process of model updating and assist engineers to decide whether the creep test data are sufficient for the creep analysis.  相似文献   

中尺度降水集合预报随机参数扰动方法敏感性试验   总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4  

徐致真  陈静  王勇  李红祺  陈法敬  范宇恩 《气象学报》2019,77(5):849-868

中尺度降水模式预报具有很大的不确定性,为更好地描述与模式降水预报密切相关的物理过程关键参数的不确定性,基于中国气象局GRAPES（Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System）中尺度区域集合预报模式,从对模式降水预报不确定性有较大影响的积云对流、云微物理、边界层及近地面层等4个参数化方案中选取了18个关键参数,设计了一种随机参数扰动方案（Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization,SPP）,并通过2015年6—7月总计10 d的随机扰动集合预报试验,对比分析了SPP方案对不同物理过程参数扰动敏感性、随机场时、空尺度敏感性、能量变化特征及其集合预报效果。结果显示,对所选择的任一物理过程参数化方案增加SPP扰动后,降水及等压面要素的概率预报技巧优于无SPP扰动的预报,而扰动积云对流和边界层过程中的参数较扰动云微物理过程中的参数影响更显著,且同时扰动积云对流、云微物理、边界层及近地面层参数化方案中的18个参数的集合预报效果优于扰动任何单一物理过程中的部分参数,表明SPP方案能够有效地提高中尺度降水概率预报技巧;从能量变化特征可知,不同物理过程的参数扰动对动能、内能和总能量的影响层次和特征有所不同,但总体而言,扰动前后各项能量基本相同;随机场时、空尺度敏感性试验发现,SPP扰动随机场时间、空间相关尺度对集合预报效果有明显影响,当扰动随机场选用12 h抗相关时间及截断波数20时,集合预报结果最优。上述结果表明,SPP随机参数扰动方案不仅能够有效提高集合概率预报效果,还能够提高集合降水概率预报技巧,具有良好的业务应用与发展前景。   相似文献   

GRAPES区域集合预报两种侧边界扰动方法对比试验     

范宇恩  陈静  邓国  陈法敬  刘雪晴  徐致真 《气象》2019,45(12):1629-1641

中国气象局数值预报中心自2014年建立了区域集合预报业务系统,其使用的侧边界扰动由全球集合预报系统动力降尺度得到。为深入了解侧边界扰动对区域集合预报的影响,基于15 km水平分辨率的区域集合预报模式,使用动力降尺度方法和尺度化滞后平均法(scaled lagged average forecasting,SLAF)设计构造了两种侧边界扰动方案,并开展了2015年7月共6天的集合预报试验,利用集合均方根误差、集合离散度、连续分级概率评分、离群值、Brier Score及相对作用特征曲线面积等概率预报检验方法进行了多方面检验,分析了两种侧边界扰动方案对区域集合预报质量的影响。结果表明:动力降尺度侧边界扰动方案(DOWN)的扰动总能量在各垂直层次均大于SLAF方案,使得边界上前者的离散度大于后者,集合扰动增长更为合理;对于等压面要素和地面要素,DOWN方案的离散度、Outlier、CRPS等评分优于SLAF方案,反映了DOWN方案构造的侧边界扰动更加合理;在降水概率预报技巧方面,SLAF方案在评分上具有一定优势,但评分的提高没有通过显著性水平检验,因此认为两种方案对降水预报的改进基本相当。  相似文献